Journal of thoracic disease · 2025
Disease burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis from 1992 to 2021 and prediction of future disease burden trend in China.
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Xie Zhiqin, Du Yunyu, Zhou Li, Xiong Wanyin, Zhang Min, Xiang Tianxin, Yang Zhen
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The prevalence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis (PS) is rising, posing a significant health concern globally and particularly in China. This study aims to elucidate the disease burden of ILD & PS in China and to provide projections of future trends.
METHODS: This study examined ILD and PS prevalence and mortality rates in China, focusing on variations by age, gender, and time period. Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We employed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, Joinpoint regression (JPR), and traditional age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate trends. The age-standardized prevalence rose by 8%, while the overall mortality rate also increased, despite a 2.5% decrease in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Males consistently exhibited higher death rates than females.
RESULTS: ILD and PS prevalence in China increased from 22.17 per 100,000 people in 1992 to 44.17 per 100,000 in 2021, with mortality rates rising from 0.26 to 0.54 per 100,000 in the same period. Projections indicate continued increases in both ILD and PS cases and deaths through 2030.
CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the growing ILD and PS burden in China from 1992 to 2021 and anticipates further rises in cases and fatalities over the next decade, even as prevalence rates are expected to stabilize. Age remains a key risk factor.
METHODS: This study examined ILD and PS prevalence and mortality rates in China, focusing on variations by age, gender, and time period. Data were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. We employed Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling, Joinpoint regression (JPR), and traditional age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to evaluate trends. The age-standardized prevalence rose by 8%, while the overall mortality rate also increased, despite a 2.5% decrease in the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Males consistently exhibited higher death rates than females.
RESULTS: ILD and PS prevalence in China increased from 22.17 per 100,000 people in 1992 to 44.17 per 100,000 in 2021, with mortality rates rising from 0.26 to 0.54 per 100,000 in the same period. Projections indicate continued increases in both ILD and PS cases and deaths through 2030.
CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the growing ILD and PS burden in China from 1992 to 2021 and anticipates further rises in cases and fatalities over the next decade, even as prevalence rates are expected to stabilize. Age remains a key risk factor.