Obesity indices as predictors of metabolic syndrome: 1-year findings from a Peruvian cohort of private educational institution workers.

BACKGROUND

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a common condition marked by abdominal obesity, insulin resistance, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia. It has significant health and economic impacts, highlighting the need for early predictive markers.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the prognostic performance of various obesity indices in the 1-year incidence of MetS among adult employees of a private educational institution.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study was conducted using data from adults employed at a private educational institution in Lima, Peru. Participants were enrolled in 2019 and followed for 1 year to monitor anthropometric and biochemical parameters. The outcome was the development of MetS at the end of follow-up, defined according to the criteria of the Latin American Diabetes Association. Receiver operating characteristic curves were plotted, and the area under the curve (AUC) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) was calculated to assess the predictive utility of each index for MetS after 1 year.

RESULTS

Of the 792 adults initially enrolled, 475 were included in the final analysis after exclusions and loss to follow-up. Their average age was 38.4 years, and 54.3% were women. The overall incidence of MetS was 7.4%, with 12% for males and 4% for females. The highest AUC values for predicting MetS were observed for the body mass index (AUC: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.92), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR; AUC: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85-0.92), abdominal volume index (AVI; AUC: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.86-0.92), and body roundness index (BRI; AUC: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.85-0.92). In sex-stratified analyses, results were consistent for males. Among females, the body adiposity index also showed good discrimination (AUC: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.83-1.00). The wide 95% CI reflects the small number of incident MetS cases among women (n = 10) and should be interpreted with caution.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, the incidence of MetS after 1 year of follow-up was 7.4%, with a higher rate among males. The WHtR, BRI, and AVI were the most useful anthropometric indices for predicting MetS.