Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology · 2023
Merkel cell carcinoma recurrence risk estimation is improved by integrating factors beyond cancer stage: A multivariable model and web-based calculator.
СтатьяПоддержка NIH: внешняя программаПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
McEvoy Aubriana M, Hippe Daniel S, Lachance Kristina, Park Song, Cahill Kelsey, Redman Mary, Gooley Ted, Kattan Michael W, Nghiem Paul
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) recurs in 40% of patients. In addition to stage, factors known to affect recurrence risk include: sex, immunosuppression, unknown primary status, age, site of primary tumor, and time since diagnosis.
PURPOSE: Create a multivariable model and web-based calculator to predict MCC recurrence risk more accurately than stage alone.
METHODS: Data from 618 patients in a prospective cohort were used in a competing risk regression model to estimate recurrence risk using stage and other factors.
RESULTS: In this multivariable model, the most impactful recurrence risk factors were: American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001), immunosuppression (hazard ratio 2.05; P < .001), male sex (1.59; P = .003) and unknown primary (0.65; P = .064). Compared to stage alone, the model improved prognostic accuracy (concordance index for 2-year risk, 0.66 vs 0.70; P < .001), and modified estimated recurrence risk by up to 4-fold (18% for low-risk stage IIIA vs 78% for high-risk IIIA over 5 years).
LIMITATIONS: Lack of an external data set for model validation.
CONCLUSION/RELEVANCE: As demonstrated by this multivariable model, accurate recurrence risk prediction requires integration of factors beyond stage. An online calculator based on this model (at merkelcell.org/recur) integrates time since diagnosis and provides new data for optimizing surveillance for MCC patients.
PURPOSE: Create a multivariable model and web-based calculator to predict MCC recurrence risk more accurately than stage alone.
METHODS: Data from 618 patients in a prospective cohort were used in a competing risk regression model to estimate recurrence risk using stage and other factors.
RESULTS: In this multivariable model, the most impactful recurrence risk factors were: American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (P < .001), immunosuppression (hazard ratio 2.05; P < .001), male sex (1.59; P = .003) and unknown primary (0.65; P = .064). Compared to stage alone, the model improved prognostic accuracy (concordance index for 2-year risk, 0.66 vs 0.70; P < .001), and modified estimated recurrence risk by up to 4-fold (18% for low-risk stage IIIA vs 78% for high-risk IIIA over 5 years).
LIMITATIONS: Lack of an external data set for model validation.
CONCLUSION/RELEVANCE: As demonstrated by this multivariable model, accurate recurrence risk prediction requires integration of factors beyond stage. An online calculator based on this model (at merkelcell.org/recur) integrates time since diagnosis and provides new data for optimizing surveillance for MCC patients.