Archives of medical science : AMS · 2026
The global landscape of non-Hodgkin lymphoma incidence and mortality in 2022 and projections to 2045.
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Kuang Zhixing, Zheng Lingling, Yan Lilin, Liu Rongqiang, Zheng Xinfei, Ye Aihua, Tu Jiannan
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Updated estimates of the current and future burden of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) are critical for evaluating global cancer control efforts and addressing disparities in disease impact across regions.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: We assessed the 2022 global NHL burden and projected trends to 2045 across 185 countries using population-based cancer registry data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) database and GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates. Trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 1990 to 2017/2020 were analyzed in selected regions to contextualize findings.
RESULTS: In 2022, an estimated 553,389 new NHL cases (ASIR 5.6/100,000) and 250,679 deaths (ASMR 2.4/100,000) occurred globally. The highest case numbers were observed at ages 65-69, with ASIR peaking at 85+ and men consistently showing higher rates. High-HDI regions, such as Northern America (ASIR 12.49) and Australia/New Zealand (ASIR 12.05), reported elevated incidence compared to low-HDI regions like South-Central Asia (ASIR 2.79). East Asia, led by China (14.6% of cases), had the largest case volume. ASIR strongly correlated with HDI (r = 0.655, p = 3.21E-22), while ASMR showed no significant correlation (r = 0.002, p = 0.982). By 2045, NHL cases are projected to increase to 889,841 and deaths to 433,254, with low-HDI regions experiencing the steepest rises.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal pronounced global disparities in NHL burden, with high-HDI regions benefiting from treatment advances, while low-HDI areas face escalating challenges by 2045. Addressing aging-driven incidence, expanding diagnostic capacity in resource-limited settings, and strengthening prevention efforts are imperative to tackle these inequities and curb the projected burden.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: We assessed the 2022 global NHL burden and projected trends to 2045 across 185 countries using population-based cancer registry data from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) database and GLOBOCAN 2022 estimates. Trends in age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) from 1990 to 2017/2020 were analyzed in selected regions to contextualize findings.
RESULTS: In 2022, an estimated 553,389 new NHL cases (ASIR 5.6/100,000) and 250,679 deaths (ASMR 2.4/100,000) occurred globally. The highest case numbers were observed at ages 65-69, with ASIR peaking at 85+ and men consistently showing higher rates. High-HDI regions, such as Northern America (ASIR 12.49) and Australia/New Zealand (ASIR 12.05), reported elevated incidence compared to low-HDI regions like South-Central Asia (ASIR 2.79). East Asia, led by China (14.6% of cases), had the largest case volume. ASIR strongly correlated with HDI (r = 0.655, p = 3.21E-22), while ASMR showed no significant correlation (r = 0.002, p = 0.982). By 2045, NHL cases are projected to increase to 889,841 and deaths to 433,254, with low-HDI regions experiencing the steepest rises.
CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal pronounced global disparities in NHL burden, with high-HDI regions benefiting from treatment advances, while low-HDI areas face escalating challenges by 2045. Addressing aging-driven incidence, expanding diagnostic capacity in resource-limited settings, and strengthening prevention efforts are imperative to tackle these inequities and curb the projected burden.