Journal of epidemiology · 2026
Resurgence of Influenza Following the Lifting of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in Shenzhen, China.
СтатьяПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Chen Zhenhu, Tang Xiujuan, Liu Hui, Wu Weihua, Sun Ying, Jiang Min, Wang Xin, Zou Xuan, Li Li, Ran Jinjun, Sun Shengzhi, Zhao Shi, Fang Shisong, Cao Peihua
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, global influenza activity sharply declined due to extensive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Understanding how influenza activity rebounded after these interventions were lifted is critical for informing future respiratory virus control strategies.
METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of the temporal characteristics of weekly number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, ILI%, influenza-positive cases, and influenza-positive rates. Poisson log-link regression models, incorporating meteorological factors using data from 2013 to 2019, were established to predict the weekly influenza-positive rate under a counterfactual scenario without COVID-19 interventions in 2022-2023.
RESULTS: Our findings indicate that the cancellation of COVID-19-related NPIs had a notable impact on increasing influenza transmission. Children under 5 years old exhibited the highest ILI cases. The influenza positivity rate surged to 34.35% during the pandemic relaxation, surpassing pre-pandemic (24.53%) and pandemic (9.56%) rates. During the pre-COVID-19 period, various influenza virus subtypes were co-circulated, with the predominant subtype varying. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, the dominant strains were influenza A/H1N1 and influenza B/Victoria lineage, while influenza A/H3N2 predominated in the pandemic relaxation period.
CONCLUSION: The marked resurgence of influenza activity in Shenzhen following the lifting of COVID-19-related NPIs underscores the need for sustained surveillance and preparedness for concurrent or sequential respiratory virus outbreaks.
METHODS: We conducted a descriptive analysis of the temporal characteristics of weekly number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases, ILI%, influenza-positive cases, and influenza-positive rates. Poisson log-link regression models, incorporating meteorological factors using data from 2013 to 2019, were established to predict the weekly influenza-positive rate under a counterfactual scenario without COVID-19 interventions in 2022-2023.
RESULTS: Our findings indicate that the cancellation of COVID-19-related NPIs had a notable impact on increasing influenza transmission. Children under 5 years old exhibited the highest ILI cases. The influenza positivity rate surged to 34.35% during the pandemic relaxation, surpassing pre-pandemic (24.53%) and pandemic (9.56%) rates. During the pre-COVID-19 period, various influenza virus subtypes were co-circulated, with the predominant subtype varying. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic period, the dominant strains were influenza A/H1N1 and influenza B/Victoria lineage, while influenza A/H3N2 predominated in the pandemic relaxation period.
CONCLUSION: The marked resurgence of influenza activity in Shenzhen following the lifting of COVID-19-related NPIs underscores the need for sustained surveillance and preparedness for concurrent or sequential respiratory virus outbreaks.