Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer mortality in Brazil.

BACKGROUND

In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, data projections indicated an increase in cancer mortality for the following years due to the overload of health services and the replacement of health priorities. The first studies published with data from mortality records have not confirmed these projections. However, cancer mortality is not an outcome that occurs immediately, and analyses with more extended follow-up periods are necessary. This study aims to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the mortality from all types and the five most common types of cancer in Brazil and investigate the relationship between the density of hospital beds and mortality from COVID-19 in cancer patients in Brazil's Intermediate Geographic Regions (RGIs).

METHODS

The Brazilian Mortality Information System provided data on the deaths from trachea, bronchus, and lung, colorectal, stomach, female breast, and prostate cancer and all types of cancer, and from COVID-19 in individuals who had cancer as a contributing cause of death. Predicted rates for 2020-2022 were compared with the observed ones, through a rate ratio (RR). An association analysis, through multivariate linear regression, was carried out between mortality from COVID-19 in cancer patients, the rate of hospital beds per 100,000 inhabitants, and the Human Development Index of the 133 RGIs of Brazil.

RESULTS

In 2020, 2021, and 2022, mortality from all cancers in Brazil was lower than expected, with an RR of 0.95, 0.94, and 0.95, respectively, between the observed and predicted rates. Stomach cancer showed the largest difference between observed and expected rates: RR = 0.89 in 2020 and 2021; RR = 0.88 in 2022. Mortality from COVID-19 in cancer patients, which reached its peak in 2021 (6.0/100,000), was negatively associated with the density of hospital beds in the public health system.

CONCLUSIONS

The lower-than-expected cancer mortality during 2020-2022 seems to be partly explained by mortality from COVID-19 in cancer patients, which was probably underestimated in Brazil. The findings suggested a protective role of the availability of hospital care concerning deaths due to COVID-19 in this population. More extensive follow-up is needed to understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer mortality.