Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model for Persistent Hypoparathyroidism After Total or Completion Thyroidectomy.

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical prediction model to predict the occurrence of persistent hypoparathyroidism after total or completion thyroidectomy.

METHODS

This multicentre retrospective cohort study included patients who underwent total or completion thyroidectomy between January 2010 and June 2021 in 12 Dutch hospitals.

RESULTS

Of the 366 patients included, 44 (12.0%) patients developed persistent hypoparathyroidism in the first year follow-up after surgery. Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that ΔPTH the day after surgery, corrected calcium the day after surgery, and not identifying at least one parathyroid during surgery were strong predictors for persistent hypoparathyroidism. The discriminative ability of the model was excellent (optimism-corrected C-index: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.84-0.92) with moderately calibrated predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The model proposed in this study could be used to perform an individual assessment of patients at risk for persistent hypoparathyroidism after total thyroidectomy.