BMC public health · 2026
Associations of lung and bronchus cancer incidence and ambient temperature and severe drought: a population-based study.
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Majeed Haris, Kypriotakis George
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Lung and bronchus cancer remains the leading cause of cancer related mortality in the United States, yet the influence of climatic factors on incidence rates remains understudied. This research investigates the association between temperature, severe drought duration, and cancer incidence rates among Non-Hispanic (NH) Whites in Texas.
METHODS: A cross-sectional population-based analysis using Texas Cancer Registry county-data (n = 98) for age-adjusted incidence rates of lung and bronchus cancer for NH Whites from 2013 to 2022. Annual ambient temperature data from NOAA and drought severity metrics from the US Drought Monitor were associated with cancer incidence rates. After controlling for key covariates, adjusted associations were conducted using Poisson regression and were stratified by various phases of drought periods. Adjusted associations were reported as incidence rate ratio (IRR).
RESULTS: Findings indicate a significant interaction (P < 0.05) between annual temperatures and the number of weeks of severe drought. Hence drought duration is found to be an associational effect modifier between cancer incidence and ambient temperature among all ages for NH Whites in Texas. Upon adjusted for covariates, each 1 °F in annual temperatures increased the risk for lung and bronchus cancer incidence for droughts duration of ≤ 7 weeks [IRR 1.012 (1.001-1.023), P = 0.04] and ≥ 21 weeks [IRR 1.009 (1.001-1.017), P = 0.039] among NH Whites in Texas.
CONCLUSION: This study provides unique racial specific evidence linking climatic variables to lung and bronchus cancer. These findings contribute to a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate variability is a critical determinant of respiratory cancer outcomes.
METHODS: A cross-sectional population-based analysis using Texas Cancer Registry county-data (n = 98) for age-adjusted incidence rates of lung and bronchus cancer for NH Whites from 2013 to 2022. Annual ambient temperature data from NOAA and drought severity metrics from the US Drought Monitor were associated with cancer incidence rates. After controlling for key covariates, adjusted associations were conducted using Poisson regression and were stratified by various phases of drought periods. Adjusted associations were reported as incidence rate ratio (IRR).
RESULTS: Findings indicate a significant interaction (P < 0.05) between annual temperatures and the number of weeks of severe drought. Hence drought duration is found to be an associational effect modifier between cancer incidence and ambient temperature among all ages for NH Whites in Texas. Upon adjusted for covariates, each 1 °F in annual temperatures increased the risk for lung and bronchus cancer incidence for droughts duration of ≤ 7 weeks [IRR 1.012 (1.001-1.023), P = 0.04] and ≥ 21 weeks [IRR 1.009 (1.001-1.017), P = 0.039] among NH Whites in Texas.
CONCLUSION: This study provides unique racial specific evidence linking climatic variables to lung and bronchus cancer. These findings contribute to a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate variability is a critical determinant of respiratory cancer outcomes.