Machine learning-based drug susceptibility prediction from Candida genomic data.

OBJECTIVES

Invasive Candida infection is an increasing clinical concern, with antifungal resistance rising across multiple species. However, rapid and accurate antifungal susceptibility testing (AFST) remains limited in routine practice. The study evaluated species distribution and antifungal susceptibility of invasive Candida isolates in China and assessed the feasibility of combining whole-genome sequencing (WGS) with machine learning to predict minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs).

METHODS

Consecutive non-repetitive isolates were collected from 20 hospitals in 13 provinces during 2022-2023. MICs of nine antifungal agents were determined by broth microdilution, and WGS was performed for species accounting for >5% of the total isolates. Genomic 11-mer features were extracted and used to train random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, followed by optimization of the best-performing algorithm.

RESULTS

A total of 337 isolates were obtained from blood (n = 232) and sterile body fluids (n = 105), comprising C. albicans (n = 103), C. tropicalis (n = 71), C. parapsilosis (n = 67), and C. glabrata (n = 63). Non-albicans Candida showed higher azole and echinocandin resistance, with C. tropicalis notably resistant to azoles and C. glabrata to echinocandins. Among the three models, RF demonstrated the best performance on 304 sequenced isolates. The optimized RF model was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and achieved an average area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.979 (95% CI: 0.974-0.984), essential agreement over 90.1%, and categorical agreement over 93.2% across species.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the clinical challenge posed by non-albicans Candida resistance, and indicate that WGS-based MIC prediction may offer a highly accurate reference for earlier antifungal therapy.