Cancer treatment and research communications · 2026
Projected disease burden and treatment eligibility of patients with diffuse large B-cell and mantle cell lymphoma in the United States over the next decade.
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Lin Dan, Shao Changxia, Ma Jiemin, Burcu Mehmet, Sineshaw Helmneh M
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: There is lack of comprehensive and up-to-date forecasted estimates for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and mantle cell lymphoma (MCL), with inconsistencies in existing literature. The study estimated and forecasted incidence, prevalence, and treatment-eligible patient counts by line of therapy (LoT) for DLBCL and MCL in the US from 2023 to 2032.
METHODS: Historical incidence rates for 2017-2022 (excluding 2020) from SEER-21 were used for projections. A validated joinpoint regression model forecasted age- and gender-specific incidence rates. A validated prevalence model incorporating incidence, survival, and cure likelihood estimated 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year prevalences. A new model estimated treatment-eligible DLBCL and MCL patients counts by LoT, integrating projected incidence, literature estimates on re‑entry patients, and SEER-Medicare treatment‑pattern data.
RESULTS: From 2023 to 2032, DLBCL incidence is projected to rise by 7% (28,838 to 30,772) and MCL by 6% (3,377 to 3,589). The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year prevalences are expected to increase by 11%, 16%, 18%, and 20% for DLBCL, and by 8%, 13%, 16%, and 19% for MCL. In DLBCL, treatment-eligible patients are estimated to increase by 7% in 1L (33,120 to 35,523) and by 8% in later lines (2L: 9,243 to 9,976; 3L: 4,466 to 4,821; 4L: 2,163 to 2,335). In MCL, treatment-eligible patients are expected to increase by 6% across all LoT (1L: 3,376 to 3,591; 2L: 1,220 to 1,297; 3L: 685 to 729; 4L: 379 to 405).
CONCLUSION: Projections indicate growing burdens of DLBCL and MCL in the US, informing healthcare planning and resource allocation.
METHODS: Historical incidence rates for 2017-2022 (excluding 2020) from SEER-21 were used for projections. A validated joinpoint regression model forecasted age- and gender-specific incidence rates. A validated prevalence model incorporating incidence, survival, and cure likelihood estimated 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year prevalences. A new model estimated treatment-eligible DLBCL and MCL patients counts by LoT, integrating projected incidence, literature estimates on re‑entry patients, and SEER-Medicare treatment‑pattern data.
RESULTS: From 2023 to 2032, DLBCL incidence is projected to rise by 7% (28,838 to 30,772) and MCL by 6% (3,377 to 3,589). The 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20-year prevalences are expected to increase by 11%, 16%, 18%, and 20% for DLBCL, and by 8%, 13%, 16%, and 19% for MCL. In DLBCL, treatment-eligible patients are estimated to increase by 7% in 1L (33,120 to 35,523) and by 8% in later lines (2L: 9,243 to 9,976; 3L: 4,466 to 4,821; 4L: 2,163 to 2,335). In MCL, treatment-eligible patients are expected to increase by 6% across all LoT (1L: 3,376 to 3,591; 2L: 1,220 to 1,297; 3L: 685 to 729; 4L: 379 to 405).
CONCLUSION: Projections indicate growing burdens of DLBCL and MCL in the US, informing healthcare planning and resource allocation.