The Journal of infectious diseases · 2026
The Source-Sink Dynamics of Plasmodium vivax May Undermine Malaria Elimination Efforts in the Amazon: An Epidemiological and Population Genomic Study.
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de Albuquerque Nathalia Rammé M, Corder Rodrigo M, Johansen Igor C, Ladeia Winni A, Rodrigues Priscila T, Ladeia-Andrade Simone, Silva Joana C, Ferreira Marcelo U
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Brazil's progress toward malaria elimination has stalled and 163 000 new cases (more than 80% caused by Plasmodium vivax) were recorded in the Brazilian Amazon in 2023. We hypothesize that human mobility continues to disperse parasites from hotspots to areas with decreasing endemicity.
METHODS: We analyzed 5.5 million malaria case notifications between 2003 and 2023 to describe malaria case mobility and identify sources and sinks of P. vivax in the Brazilian Amazon. We leveraged whole-genome sequence data from 408 P. vivax isolates sampled from across South America to characterize parasite gene flow and infer likely regional routes of parasite dispersal.
RESULTS: We found that nearly one-third of the P. vivax infections diagnosed in residents in the Brazilian Amazon over 21 years were acquired outside the locality or municipality of residence, but only 1.7% were imported from other countries in South America, mostly from the Guiana Shield. We show that large cities with residual malaria transmission-such as Manaus and Porto Velho-are receptive parasite sinks surrounded by high-risk source rural localities. Although the genetic relatedness of parasites tended to decrease with geographic distance, parasites from sites more than 1000 km apart often remained genetically connected.
CONCLUSIONS: Understanding parasite source-sink dynamics on different geographic scales is crucial to target high-risk mobile populations and source localities along with receptive sinks within low-transmission municipalities, with the goal of eliminating malaria transmission and preventing its reintroduction into malaria-free areas.
METHODS: We analyzed 5.5 million malaria case notifications between 2003 and 2023 to describe malaria case mobility and identify sources and sinks of P. vivax in the Brazilian Amazon. We leveraged whole-genome sequence data from 408 P. vivax isolates sampled from across South America to characterize parasite gene flow and infer likely regional routes of parasite dispersal.
RESULTS: We found that nearly one-third of the P. vivax infections diagnosed in residents in the Brazilian Amazon over 21 years were acquired outside the locality or municipality of residence, but only 1.7% were imported from other countries in South America, mostly from the Guiana Shield. We show that large cities with residual malaria transmission-such as Manaus and Porto Velho-are receptive parasite sinks surrounded by high-risk source rural localities. Although the genetic relatedness of parasites tended to decrease with geographic distance, parasites from sites more than 1000 km apart often remained genetically connected.
CONCLUSIONS: Understanding parasite source-sink dynamics on different geographic scales is crucial to target high-risk mobile populations and source localities along with receptive sinks within low-transmission municipalities, with the goal of eliminating malaria transmission and preventing its reintroduction into malaria-free areas.