Preventive medicine reports · 2026
Risk factors for incident type 2 diabetes among adults with impaired fasting glucose: a comparison of three regression models accounting for competing mortality in Liuzhou, Guangxi, China.
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Lu Zhenzhen, Li Chaoyun, Li Qi, Lv Jun, Yu Canqing, Sun Dianjianyi, Mao Wei
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: Impaired fasting glucose (IFG) is a prediabetic precursor of type 2 diabetes (T2DM). Few long-term cohorts with substantial competing mortality compare risk estimates from logistic, Cox and Fine-Gray regression. This study aimed to examine cross-model discrepancies and demonstrate model-dependent bias in IFG risk inference.
METHODS: We followed 913 Chinese IFG adults recruited in Liuzhou, Guangxi (2004-2008) for up to 20 years until 31 December 2024 (median 17.83 years). Three regression models were used to identify fully adjusted T2DM predictors.
RESULTS: Fasting glucose, body fat percentage and older age were consistent positive predictors; female sex was persistently protective. Body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2 and waist-to-hip ratio showed divergent results across models. Hypertension lacked independent effects in all models, and enrollment year was significant only in Cox regression.
CONCLUSIONS: Statistical model choice alters risk factor conclusions in IFG cohorts with high competing mortality. Joint interpretation of complementary regression methods is recommended.
METHODS: We followed 913 Chinese IFG adults recruited in Liuzhou, Guangxi (2004-2008) for up to 20 years until 31 December 2024 (median 17.83 years). Three regression models were used to identify fully adjusted T2DM predictors.
RESULTS: Fasting glucose, body fat percentage and older age were consistent positive predictors; female sex was persistently protective. Body mass index (BMI) ≥28 kg/m2 and waist-to-hip ratio showed divergent results across models. Hypertension lacked independent effects in all models, and enrollment year was significant only in Cox regression.
CONCLUSIONS: Statistical model choice alters risk factor conclusions in IFG cohorts with high competing mortality. Joint interpretation of complementary regression methods is recommended.