Global and regional incidence burden of periodontal diseases: Age-period-cohort analysis from 1992 through 2021 and forecast by 2050.

BACKGROUND

The authors investigated long-term trends in global and regional incidence of periodontal diseases from 1992 through 2021 and predicted potential changes through 2050.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, the authors analyzed the contributions of age, period, and cohort impacts on the incidence of periodontal diseases worldwide and across 5 Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions through the age-period-cohort model. They also used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to predict the global incidence from 2022 through 2050.

RESULTS

The global incident cases of periodontal diseases increased from 5.23 × 107 in 1992 to 8.96 × 107 in 2021. Compared with high SDI regions, those in low SDI regions had a greater overall age-standardized incidence rate. Upward trends in local drifts among the older populations were observed globally and in 5 SDI categories. The highest global incidence was recorded in the age group 50 through 54 years (1,928.73 per 100,000 population), and the period trend of global incidence worsened from 2007 through 2021. Unfavorable trends were evident in cohort effects for younger birth cohorts globally. From 2022 through 2050, the global age-standardized incidence rates for both sexes were projected to increase initially and then decrease.

CONCLUSIONS

Negative impacts from adverse age and period effects contributed to the burden of periodontal diseases. Meanwhile, effective actions to address differences in burden across regions are essential to promote equality in periodontal health.

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Describing and forecasting the incidence burden of periodontal diseases can offer theoretical support for implementing preventive strategies to reduce inequalities in periodontal health.