The Burden of Inflammatory Bowel Disease in Gulf Cooperation Council Countries from 1990 to 2021 with Forecasting Projections to 2030: A Global Burden of Disease Study.

Background

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) represents a growing health challenge in regions undergoing socioeconomic transition. This study characterized IBD epidemiology across Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, forecasted future burden, and identified country-specific determinants to inform targeted health policy interventions.

Methods

IBD data from the Global Burden of Disease study (1990-2021) were analyzed for all six GCC countries using descriptive epidemiology, temporal trend analysis, three forecasting models (Age-Period-Cohort, Joinpoint regression, Bayesian age-standardized rate modeling), and regression analyses to identify socioeconomic, environmental, gender-specific, and healthcare system factors associated with IBD burden variation.

Results

Age-standardized IBD prevalence rates varied across GCC countries (28.92-42.93 per 100,000), with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) showing the highest rates and fastest increases (967% and 898% since 1990). Kuwait uniquely demonstrated stable or slightly declining trends. Significant female predominance emerged in most countries (male ratio 0.70-0.91) with strong birth cohort effects (1970s cohorts showing 18-48% higher risk than 1950s cohorts). IBD manifested primarily as disability rather than a mortality burden. Projections indicate continued increases through 2030, potentially reaching 55-59 per 100,000 in Qatar and the UAE. Fast food outlet density, processed food imports, antibiotic consumption, and female vitamin D deficiency were the most significant modifiable risk factors.

Conclusions

The GCC region faces a growing IBD epidemiological profile characterized by rising burden, female predominance, and generational differences in risk observations. Identification of modifiable determinants provides actionable targets for intervention, while country-specific projections offer a foundation for healthcare planning to address this challenge.