The application of the grey disaster model to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China.

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study were to forecast epidemic peaks of typhoid and paratyphoid fever in China using the grey disaster model, to evaluate its feasibility of predicting the epidemic tendency of notifiable diseases.

METHODS

According to epidemiological features, the GM(1,1) model and DGM model were used to build the grey disaster model based on the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid fever collected from the China Health Statistical Yearbook. Model fitting accuracy test was used to evaluate the performance of these two models. Then, the next catastrophe date was predicted by the better model.

RESULTS

The simulation results showed that DGM model was better than GM(1,1) model in our data set. Using the DGM model, we predicted the next epidemic peak time will occur between 2023 to 2025.

CONCLUSION

The grey disaster model can predict the typhoid and paratyphoid fever epidemic time precisely, which may provide valuable information for disease prevention and control.