Global burden of liver cirrhosis: trends from 1990-2021 and projections to 2060.

BACKGROUND

Liver cirrhosis, a progressive and debilitating condition characterized by extensive fibrosis and disruption of hepatic architecture, remains a significant global health challenge, primarily arising from chronic hepatitis and other liver diseases.

METHODS

Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were utilized to analyze trends in the incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and prevalence of liver cirrhosis from 1990 to 2021 across various geographic regions, aiming to provide guidance for future disease burden interventions. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was utilized for predicting trends up to 2060.

RESULTS

In 2021, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis was recorded at 58,417,006 cases. Total death cases attributed to liver cirrhosis escalated to 1,425,142 in 2021, although the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) demonstrated a marked decline. Regional disparities were evident, with the highest incidence reported in North Africa and the Middle East, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions that bear a disproportionate burden. Following the current trends, it is projected that by 2060, the ASDR, ASPR, and DALYs rate for liver cirrhosis will progressively decline.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings underscore the need for enhanced strategies to combat liver cirrhosis, especially in high-burden regions. Specifically, the global incidence of liver cirrhosis has increased by 58.21% from 1990 to 2021. This prediction to 2060 holds strategic significance for guiding the adjustment of priorities in future disease burden management efforts.