MELD 3.0 Score and Time to Discharge After Pericardiectomy: A Competing Risks Analysis in Tuberculous Constrictive Pericarditis.

Background/

Objectives

Tuberculous constrictive pericarditis (TCP) is characterized by "backward failure" and systemic venous congestion, leading to secondary multi-organ dysfunction. The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0 score assesses liver, renal, and nutritional status, yet its prognostic utility in TCP remains undefined. This study aimed to evaluate the preoperative MELD 3.0 score as a predictor of time to discharge in patients undergoing pericardiectomy for TCP.

Methods

We analyzed 190 patients undergoing pericardiectomy for TCP between 2018 and 2024. The association between preoperative MELD 3.0 scores and time to discharge (ICU, postoperative, and total) was assessed using Fine-Gray competing risks regression to account for in-hospital mortality. Models were adjusted for age, albumin, and anti-tuberculosis therapy.

Results

Each unit increase in MELD 3.0 was associated with higher operative mortality (OR 1.21, p = 0.013). In multivariable analysis, a high MELD 3.0 score (>median 9.6) was independently associated with a lower probability of discharge (i.e., delayed discharge) for total hospital stay (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] 0.606, 95% CI 0.453-0.811), postoperative stay (sHR 0.665), and ICU stay (sHR 0.658). Preoperative albumin was also a strong predictor of faster discharge.

Conclusions

The preoperative MELD 3.0 score independently predicts delayed hospital discharge after pericardiectomy for TCP, even when accounting for mortality risk. It serves as a pragmatic tool for quantifying the systemic burden of congestion and stratifying perioperative risk.