Development and Validation of a Grading Scale for Primary Pontine Hemorrhage.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We aimed to develop and validate a grading scale for predicting 30-day mortality and 90-day functional outcome in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH).

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed records of consecutive patients with first-ever pontine hemorrhage from 3 teaching hospitals between 2005 and 2012. Independent factors associated with 30-day mortality were identified by logistic regression to establish a risk stratification scale, named the new PPH score. For validation of the new PPH score, we prospectively recruited subjects from 10 units between December 2014 and November 2015. The performance of the new PPH score was presented as discrimination and calibration, measured by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, respectively.

RESULTS

Data of 171 patients were available for scale development. The new PPH score consisted of 2 independent factors with individual points assigned as follows: Glasgow Coma Scale score 3 to 4 (=2 points), 5 to 7 (=1 point), and 8 to 15 (=0 point); PPH volume >10 mL (=2 points), 5 to 10 mL (=1 point), and <5 mL (=0 point). An independent cohort of 98 patients was applied as an external validation of the new PPH score. Results showed that the new PPH score was discriminative in predicting both 30-day mortality (area under the curve, 0.902) and 90-day good outcome (area under the curve, 0.927). Furthermore, the new PPH score revealed a good calibration (χ2=1.387; P=0.846) in 30-day mortality prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

The new PPH score is simple and reliable in predicting short-term and long-term outcome for PPH patients.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.chictr.org.cn. Unique identifier: ChiCTR-OOC-14005533.