TEMPORAL TRENDS IN PANCREATIC CANCER MORTALITY IN BRAZIL BETWEEN 1980 AND 2023: ARE WE ALIGNED WITH THE GLOBAL PROJECTIONS?

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly lethal malignancy with rising incidence and mortality rates, although its burden remains poorly investigated in Brazil. Understanding its regional and sex-specific trends is critical for tailoring public health interventions and mitigating the disease's impact in the Brazilian population.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the temporal trends in PC mortality among Brazilian individuals between 1980 and 2023 and its alignment with the global projections.

METHODS

This retrospective, population-based ecological study analyzed PC mortality data using the Sistema de Informação de Mortalidade (SIM) and demographic data from the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE). Annual Percent Change (APC) calculations were performed to assess temporal trends by Brazilian geographic regions and sex, accounting for demographic shifts over time.

RESULTS

A total of 257,671 PC-related deaths occurred during the study period, averaging 5,856 deaths per year. The overall mortality trend for PC in Brazil showed a continuous increase of (APC: 1.23; 95%CI: 1.16-1.32; P-value <0.01). Regional analyses revealed significant increases in the North (APC: 2.32), South (APC: 0.59), and Midwest (APC: 1.45) regions. Sex-specific trends indicated a steady increase for women throughout the period, while men experienced alternating phases of rising and stationary trends.

CONCLUSION

PC mortality in Brazil has risen significantly over the past four decades, with marked regional and sex-specific disparities, aligning with global perspectives. These findings highlight the need for targeted PC prevention, early detection, and equitable access to high-quality cancer care, particularly in vulnerable regions and populations.