Trends analysis of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival for the elderly in the United States, 1975-2020.

BACKGROUND

Cancer burden from the elderly has been rising largely due to the aging population. However, research on the long-term epidemiological trends in cancer of the elderly is lacking.

METHODS

Registry data of this population-based cross-sectional study were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The study population aged 65 years or more, from geographically distinct regions. Joinpoint regression and JP Surv method were used to analyze cancer trends and survival.

RESULTS

Mortality rate during 1975-2020 decreased from 995.20 to 824.99 per 100,000 elderly persons, with an average annual decrease of 0.421% (95% CI, 0.378-0.464). While overall incidence increased with no significance. Prostate (29%) and breast (26%) cancer were the most common malignancies, respectively, in elderly males and females, and the mortality for both of the two (prostate 15%, breast 14%) ranked just behind lung and bronchus cancer, which had the highest mortality rates in males (29%) and females (23%). Many cancers showed adverse trends in the latest follow-up periods (the last period calculated by the Joinpoint method). For intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, incidence (male Annual Percentage Change [APC] = 7.4*; female APC = 6.7*) and mortality (male APC = 3.0*; female APC = 3.3*) increased relatively fast, and its survival was also terrible (3-year survival only 10%). Other cancers with recent increasing mortality included cancer of anus, anal canal and anorectum, retroperitoneum, pleura, peritoneum, etc. Most cancers had favorable trends of survival during the nearest follow-up period.

CONCLUSION

Against the background of overall improvement, many cancers showed adverse trends. Further research for the underlying mechanisms and targeted implements towards adverse trends is also urgent.