The disease burden of gastric cancer in China, 1990-2023: A comprehensive analysis and projections to 2035.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The disease burden of gastric cancer (GC) in China remains heavy. This study analyzed GC disease burden trends in China over recent years and projected future epidemiological patterns to inform targeted national public health prevention strategies.

METHODS

The prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GC in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database. The epidemiological characteristics and temporal trends were described and analyzed. The main risk factors associated with GC were analyzed, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the changing trends from 2024 to 2035.

RESULTS

The above epidemiological indicators of GC decreased from 1990 to 2023, and exhibited a modest rebound between 2020 and 2023. The prevalence showed a downward trend in most age groups, but there was a significant upward trend in the 15-19 and 85-89 age groups. Moreover, the burden on males was significantly higher than females. The main modifiable risk factors included smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and a high-sodium diet. Projections indicate a continued overall decline in GC burden from 2024 to 2035.

CONCLUSIONS

Precise prevention and control measures should be implemented according to gender and age groups, and screening should be strengthened to improve the early diagnosis rate, ultimately alleviating the burden of GC in China.