International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026
Global burden of multiple myeloma in older adults from 1990 to 2021 and modeled projection to 2050.
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Hu H, Zhang Y, Shao Z, Zhang Y, Song Q, Yang W, Wang B
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a prevalent hematological malignancy, particularly affecting the elderly. This study aimed to evaluate the burden and trends of MM in individuals aged 60 and older, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.
METHODS: Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates of MM among individuals aged 60 and older were extracted from GBD 2021, assessing the disease burden and projecting future burden by 2050.
RESULTS: In 2021, the global burden of MM among individuals aged ≥60 years increased compared to 1990. The United States had the highest incident, deaths, and DALYs cases, with 15 458 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 13 792-16 409], 15 737 (95% UI: 14 000-16 735), and 273 607 (95% UI: 249 708-288 013), respectively. China had the highest prevalent cases, with 27 491 (95% UI: 17 338-36 587). The age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of MM in individuals aged 60 and older exhibited increases across most of the 21 GBD regions, with notable regional and gender disparities. In high-income regions, these rates initially increased and then decreased, while in other regions, they showed a more gradual rise. The trends varied across indicators and regions, with sociodemographic index influencing the rate changes. From 1990 to 2021, disparities in MM indicators across countries with varying development levels widened. Age, period, and birth cohort significantly impacted the disease burden. High body mass index was the primary risk factor, contributing to the highest deaths and DALYs cases in high-income regions. Projections for 2022-2050 indicated an upward trend in incident, prevalent, deaths, and DALYs cases in both sexes, accompanied by a decrease in corresponding age-standardized rates, with men experiencing higher rates than women.
CONCLUSION: MM represents a significant public health challenge among older adult populations. A comprehensive understanding of the global disease burden of MM in individuals aged 60 years and older is essential for the formulation of targeted public health policies and the optimization of medical resource allocation.
METHODS: Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) rates of MM among individuals aged 60 and older were extracted from GBD 2021, assessing the disease burden and projecting future burden by 2050.
RESULTS: In 2021, the global burden of MM among individuals aged ≥60 years increased compared to 1990. The United States had the highest incident, deaths, and DALYs cases, with 15 458 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 13 792-16 409], 15 737 (95% UI: 14 000-16 735), and 273 607 (95% UI: 249 708-288 013), respectively. China had the highest prevalent cases, with 27 491 (95% UI: 17 338-36 587). The age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized mortality rate, and age-standardized DALYs rate of MM in individuals aged 60 and older exhibited increases across most of the 21 GBD regions, with notable regional and gender disparities. In high-income regions, these rates initially increased and then decreased, while in other regions, they showed a more gradual rise. The trends varied across indicators and regions, with sociodemographic index influencing the rate changes. From 1990 to 2021, disparities in MM indicators across countries with varying development levels widened. Age, period, and birth cohort significantly impacted the disease burden. High body mass index was the primary risk factor, contributing to the highest deaths and DALYs cases in high-income regions. Projections for 2022-2050 indicated an upward trend in incident, prevalent, deaths, and DALYs cases in both sexes, accompanied by a decrease in corresponding age-standardized rates, with men experiencing higher rates than women.
CONCLUSION: MM represents a significant public health challenge among older adult populations. A comprehensive understanding of the global disease burden of MM in individuals aged 60 years and older is essential for the formulation of targeted public health policies and the optimization of medical resource allocation.