Evaluation of available scoring systems in liver transplantation for severe acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The Transplantation for ACLF-3 Model (TAM) and Sundaram ACLF-LT-Mortality score (SALT-M) have been proposed to help select liver transplantation (LT) candidates with Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) to optimize post-LT outcomes. We assessed the performance and clinical utility of these scores and their components on a large retrospective international multicenter study.

APPROACH &

RESULTS

All patients transplanted in the context of ACLF grade 3 (n=336) from nine international cohorts (2008-2024) were included in the study. The primary endpoint was 1-year post-LT survival. Score discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility using decision-curve (net benefit) analysis were assessed. The 1-year post-LT survival rate was 75.3%. Both TAM (OR 1.91, p=0.0001) and SALT-M (OR 1.09, p<0.0001) were associated with 1-year mortality but showed only modest discriminative performance (AUROC 0.61 and 0.64, respectively). Clinically relevant candidate high-risk thresholds were identified: TAM ≥3 (1-year survival 42.9% vs. 79.0%) and SALT-M >25 (46.9% vs. 78.7%). Respiratory failure (PaO₂/FiO₂ ≤200) was associated with 1-year post-LT mortality, whereas other variables included in the original scores, diabetes, BMI, and leukocyte count, did not demonstrate significant prognostic value in this cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

In this large multicenter study, TAM and SALT-M were associated with post-LT mortality but demonstrated limited discriminative accuracy. Candidate high-risk thresholds (TAM ≥3, SALT-M >25) may help identify a small subset of patients with markedly poor post-LT outcomes. However, given their modest performance, these scores should support, not replace, multidisciplinary decision-making and their applicability should be evaluated in a prospective fashion.