Global, regional, and national burden of acute myeloid leukemia attributable to tobacco from 1990 to 2021, with future forecasts to 2050: A secondary dataset analysis of the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study.

INTRODUCTION

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a major public health problem. However, the epidemiological pattern of the burden of AML attributable to tobacco globally remains unclear. This study aimed to characterize the global, regional, and national burden of AML attributable to tobacco from 1990 to 2021 and to forecast it to 2050.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, and secondary dataset analysis was used in the present research. Age-standardized rates of tobacco-attributable AML deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were analyzed, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) calculated. Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was performed to quantify the age, period, and birth cohort effects on AML attributable to tobacco. A Bayesian APC model was subsequently us ed to project the disease burden of attributable to tobacco between 2022 and 2050.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the burden of AML attributable to tobacco globally presented downward trends. The age-standardized death rate (ASDR) decreased from 0.214 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 0.08-0.35] per 100000 people in 1990 to 0.176 (95% UI: 0.062-0.307) per 100000 people in 2021. The high sociodemographic index (SDI) regions had the highest ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate for AML attributable to tobacco in 2021. The greatest burden of AML attributable to tobacco was the age group of 70-74 years among the risk factors of AML; tobacco shared at 11.5% of global deaths. As for the age effect, death due to AML attributable to tobacco increased with age, rising slowly before 40 years of age and accelerating sharply thereafter. The ASDR for males decreased from 0.3 per 100000 people in 2021 to 0.24 per 100000 people in 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the burden of AML attributable to tobacco had been on a downward trend from 1990 to 2021, it is particularly prominent in high SDI regions, high-income regions, and the elderly population.