Burden of disease for multiple myeloma in China and the Asia-Pacific region, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study.

This project tracks Asia-Pacific multiple myeloma (MM) disease burden from 1990 to 2021. This research predicts incidence and death trends due to aging populations, healthcare resource disparities, gender, regional differences, and health inequities. The 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database was used to extract Asia-Pacific MM incidence, mortality, and Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) by age and sex from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression studied temporal patterns, while APC models deconstructed drivers. The slope inequality index (SII) and concentration index (CI) measured health inequalities, whereas decomposition analysis measured aging, population growth, and epidemiological transition. Predictions using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA) and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC). Between 1990 and 2021, the worldwide burden of MM grew, particularly in China, where age-standardized incidence reached 918.69%, death 326%, and DALY 622.15%. Approximately 60% of East Asia's increase was due to population aging. Males were more affected than females, with most occurrences occurring in those over 70. Early diagnosis was common in low-income communities. MM prevalence correlated positively with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) except in Japan, where it varied negatively. Disease incidence is predicted to rise in China, while fatality rates should steady. Additionally, male disease burden is expected to continue higher than female disease burden throughout time. MM incidence, mortality, and DALY have increased globally and in the Asia-Pacific area. China's disease burden is male-dominated, age-driven, and positively correlated with SDI. Future incidence rates are predicted to climb, especially among the elderly and males, requiring differentiated prevention and control efforts. Innovative global tactics may come from the Japanese model.