Variability in Cardiometabolic Parameters and All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Older Adults: Evidence From 2 Prospective Cohorts.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study is to assess the individual and joint associations of variability in multiple cardiometabolic parameters with mortality risk across older populations.

METHODS

A total of 51,551 Chinese elderly participants (aged ≥60 years) with ≥3 measurements of systolic blood pressure, visceral adiposity index, fasting blood glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol during 2018-2022 were included. Variability metrics included SD, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean (used in primary analysis). Participants were classified on the basis of the number of high-variability (highest quartile of variability) parameters into 4 categories: with 0, 1, 2, and 3-4 high-variability cardiometabolic parameters. Cox regression analyses were performed in 2024. Findings were then externally validated using the Health and Retirement Study (Waves 8-15).

RESULTS

Higher systolic blood pressure, visceral adiposity index, fasting plasma glucose, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol variability were associated with greater all-, cardiovascular-, and other-cause mortality risk. Compared with those of subjects with no high-variability parameters measured as the variability independent of the mean, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of all-cause mortality were 1.30 (1.16, 1.44) for 1 parameter, 1.86 (1.66, 2.09) for 2 parameters, and 2.02 (1.75, 2.32) for 3-4 parameters. Consistent results were noted for cardiovascular-, cancer-, and other-cause mortality using other variability indices and in various sensitivity and subgroup analyses. These associations were validated in the Health and Retirement Study (n=1,991).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased variability in cardiometabolic parameters is associated with elevated risks of all-cause and cause-specific mortality among older adults in China. Reducing variability of these parameters could serve as a target to increase life expectancy in older populations.