Temporal Trends and Future Projections of Osteoarthritis Knee Burden in China: Analysis of GBD 2021.

BACKGROUND

Knee osteoarthritis (OA), a leading cause of disability, disproportionately affects women and the elderly, contributing significantly to health burdens. This study aims to analyze the temporal trend and future projection of knee OA burden in China, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021.

METHODS

The research employed age-period-cohort (APC) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to examine the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of knee OA from 1990 to 2021, with projections for the next 15 years.

RESULTS

Findings show a substantial increase in knee OA incidence and DALYs over the past three decades, particularly among women, with a notable age-dependent rise. The ARIMA model predicts a gradual decline in knee OA incidence and DALYs after 2021, potentially due to healthcare reforms and preventive strategies.

CONCLUSION

The study underscores the growing healthcare burden of knee OA in China and highlights the need for effective prevention, early diagnosis, and improved healthcare infrastructure to manage this increasing public health issue.