Burden of Bacterial Antimicrobial Resistance in Libya, 1970-2024: A Systematic Meta-Analysis with Projections to 2050.

Background

Libya, a conflict-affected North African country, has a fragile health system and poor surveillance, leaving it largely underrepresented in global estimates. Earlier Libyan reviews were descriptive, lacking breakpoint standardization, isolate-level pooling, or AMR-attributable mortality and DALY estimates. To our knowledge, this study represents the first comprehensive report that integrates phenotypic and genotypic data to estimate deaths and DALYs attributable to AMR-induced mortality and morbidity, describe spatiotemporal patterns, and model future trajectories.

Methods

We performed a meta-analysis according to the PRISMA 2020 guideline of Libyan studies reporting phenotypic or genotypic resistance among clinical bacterial isolates (1970-2024), combined with microbiology records from hospitals and national surveillance systems (preregistered in PROSPERO ID: CRD420251066018). Susceptibility results were standardized to CLSI/EUCAST and deduplicated using WHO GLASS first-isolate rules. We used random-effects meta-regression to estimate pooled resistance, and the counterfactual approach of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) was applied to estimate AMR-attributable DALYs. Molecular data on resistance genes, sequence types, and tuberculosis mutations were systematically collected.

Results

We included 62 eligible studies together with national and facility-level surveillance datasets, providing isolate-level susceptibility data for 31,439 clinical isolates from Libya. In 2024, we estimated 2183 deaths (95% UI 1752-2614) attributable to AMR, representing 9.7% (95% UI 7.8-11.6) of total deaths with a mortality rate of 15.2 per 100,000 (12.2-18.2). DALYs attributable to AMR increased from 14,628 (95% UI 11,702-17,554) in 1970 to 96,715 (95% UI 77,372-116,058). The highest pooled resistance involved carbapenem-resistant/MDR A. baumannii, third-generation cephalosporin- and fluoroquinolone-resistant Enterobacterales, and carbapenem-resistant P. aeruginosa. Molecular data showed widespread ESBLs, OXA-/NDM-type carbapenemases, plasmid-mediated colistin resistance, high-risk E. coli ST131 and K. pneumoniae ST147 lineages, and canonical drug-resistant M. tuberculosis mutations.

Conclusions

Combined with global and regional evidence, our findings suggest a high and increasing burden of AMR in Libya. These findings emphasize the need for rapid expansion of data collection systems, GLASS-aligned surveillance, diagnostic capacities, and infection control measures.