Global Burdens and Trends of Breast Cancer Attributable to Dietary and Metabolic Risks: A 30-Year Analysis With Projections to 2050, Including Males and Females.

OBJECTIVES

Modifiable dietary and metabolic factors are leading risk factors for breast cancer (BC). This study comprehensively analyzed their attributable burdens and trends across global, regional, sex, and age dimensions, with projections to 2050.

METHODS

Data were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, including BC-related deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) from 1990 to 2021. These metrics, covering 204 countries and territories, were stratified by sex, age, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles, and 21 GBD regions. Temporal trends were quantified using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), while locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) regression analyzed SDI relationships. Projections employed AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Exponential Smoothing (ES) models.

RESULTS

Globally in 2021, dietary and metabolic risks accounted for approximately 0.08 and 0.07 million BC deaths, with 2.45 and 1.78 million DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, ASMR and ASDR attributable to dietary risk declined, while those from metabolic risks increased. The SDI-burden relationship exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern, peaking in high-middle and middle SDI regions. Dietary risk affected younger adults (25-49 years), while metabolic risk surpassed dietary risk in the peak-burden 50-69 years group. Projections indicated rising BC deaths and DALYs until 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

BC burden attributable to modifiable dietary and metabolic factors remains a growing global challenge, with significant disparities across SDI regions and age groups. High-middle/middle SDI regions and adults aged 50-69 years need priority interventions, while early-life dietary interventions may reduce long-term BC burden.