A risk analysis framework for the long-term management of antibiotic resistance in food-producing animals.

In recent years, there has been increasing concern that the use of antibiotics in food-producing animals, particularly their long-term use for growth promotion, contributes to the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria in animals. These resistant bacteria may spread from animals to humans via the food chain. They may also transfer their antibiotic-resistance genes into human pathogenic bacteria, leading to failure of antibiotic treatment for some, possibly life-threatening, human conditions. To assist regulatory decision making, the actual risk to human health from antibiotic use in animals needs to be determined (risk assessment) and the requirements for risk minimisation (risk management and risk communication) determined. We propose a novel method of risk analysis involving risk assessment for three interrelated hazards: the antibiotic (chemical agent), the antibiotic-resistant bacterium (microbiological agent) and the antibiotic-resistance gene (genetic agent). Risk minimisation may then include control of antibiotic use and/or the reduction of the spread of bacterial infection and/or prevention of transfer of resistance determinants between bacterial populations.