Rheumatology (Oxford, England) · 2024
Steady decrease in systemic sclerosis mortality rates at younger ages over the past five decades.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Yen Eric Y, Singh Devanshu R, Singh Ram Raj
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: We aimed to assess SSc mortality by age in the general population over the past five decades.
METHODS: This is a population-based study using a national mortality database and the census data for all US residents. We calculated the proportions of deaths for SSc and for all other causes (non-SSc) by age, and calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for SSc and non-SSc, and the ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups for each year from 1968 through 2015. We performed joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) for each of these parameters.
RESULTS: SSc was recorded as the underlying cause of death in 5457 decedents aged ≤44 years, 18 395 aged 45-64, and 22 946 aged ≥65 from 1968 through 2015. At ages ≤44, the proportion of annual deaths decreased more for SSc than for non-SSc: AAPC, -2.2% (95% CI, -2.4% to -2.0%) for SSc vs -1.5% (-1.9% to -1.1%) for non-SSc. Consistently, SSc-ASMR decreased from 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8-1.2) in 1968 to 0.4 (0.3-0.5) per million persons in 2015, a cumulative decrease of 60% at an AAPC of -1.9% (95% CI, -2.5% to -1.2%) at ages ≤44. The SSc-ASMR:non-SSc-ASMR ratio also decreased [cumulative -20%; AAPC -0.3% (95% CI, -1.15% to 0.55%)] in the ≤44-years group. In contrast, those aged ≥65 experienced a steep increase in the SSc-ASMR [cumulative 187.0%; AAPC 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8-2.2)] and the SSc-ASMR:non-SSc-ASMR ratio [cumulative 395.4%; AAPC 3.3% (95% CI, 2.9-3.7)].
CONCLUSION: Mortality for SSc has steadily decreased at younger ages over the past five decades.
METHODS: This is a population-based study using a national mortality database and the census data for all US residents. We calculated the proportions of deaths for SSc and for all other causes (non-SSc) by age, and calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for SSc and non-SSc, and the ratio of SSc-ASMR to non-SSc-ASMR by age groups for each year from 1968 through 2015. We performed joinpoint regression to estimate the average annual percent change (AAPC) for each of these parameters.
RESULTS: SSc was recorded as the underlying cause of death in 5457 decedents aged ≤44 years, 18 395 aged 45-64, and 22 946 aged ≥65 from 1968 through 2015. At ages ≤44, the proportion of annual deaths decreased more for SSc than for non-SSc: AAPC, -2.2% (95% CI, -2.4% to -2.0%) for SSc vs -1.5% (-1.9% to -1.1%) for non-SSc. Consistently, SSc-ASMR decreased from 1.0 (95% CI, 0.8-1.2) in 1968 to 0.4 (0.3-0.5) per million persons in 2015, a cumulative decrease of 60% at an AAPC of -1.9% (95% CI, -2.5% to -1.2%) at ages ≤44. The SSc-ASMR:non-SSc-ASMR ratio also decreased [cumulative -20%; AAPC -0.3% (95% CI, -1.15% to 0.55%)] in the ≤44-years group. In contrast, those aged ≥65 experienced a steep increase in the SSc-ASMR [cumulative 187.0%; AAPC 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8-2.2)] and the SSc-ASMR:non-SSc-ASMR ratio [cumulative 395.4%; AAPC 3.3% (95% CI, 2.9-3.7)].
CONCLUSION: Mortality for SSc has steadily decreased at younger ages over the past five decades.