A model for the epidemiological impact of tuberculosis policy options.

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new tuberculosis transmission model, addressing the limitations of and building on the TB Impact Model and Estimates software tool, to enable decision-makers to assess the impact of various tuberculosis interventions and allocate resources more effectively.

METHODS

We designed a model incorporating diagnosis and treatment pathways across public and private sectors, stratified across age groups, drug susceptibility, human immunodeficiency virus status and vaccination status. We calibrated our model using country-specific data from 29 high-burden countries and determined calibration target indicators according to national epidemic profiles. We performed the model calibration using a Bayesian adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo process. We compare modelled and actual data for Indonesia and Nigeria.

FINDINGS: Our model calibration results showed good agreement with historical tuberculosis data. In Indonesia, we demonstrate that comprehensive implementation of the Stop TB Partnership Global plan to end TB interventions, including a public-private partnership, modern diagnostics, improved treatment for drug-resistant tuberculosis and a post-exposure vaccine, could enable the country to achieve the targets of the World Health Organization (WHO) End TB Strategy by 2035. In Nigeria, implementing the National strategic plan for tuberculosis control 2021-2026 could reduce tuberculosis incidence by 27% and mortality by 37% by 2030, even without a vaccine.

CONCLUSION

Our model provides a robust analytical foundation from which to assess the epidemiological impact of diverse interventions, prioritize investments and guide policy. The model's open-source design and alignment with WHO recommendations make it a valuable tool for guiding evidence-based investment.