Epidemiological Distribution Characteristics of Tuberculosis Among Older Adults in Chongqing (2020-2024): Spatial-Temporal Analysis.

BACKGROUND

With global aging, the burden of tuberculosis (TB) among older adults escalates, yet spatial studies on this group are scarce. In Chongqing, where 18.87% of the population are aged 65 years and older and TB burden is high, controlling older adult TB remains a major challenge.

OBJECTIVE

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of TB among adults aged 65 years and older in Chongqing, China, to inform local prevention and control strategies.

METHODS

The study data were obtained from the Tuberculosis Information Management System of China. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were conducted using ArcGIS (version 10.7) to identify high-risk spatial clusters and visualize their distribution. Spatiotemporal scan statistics were performed using SaTScan (version 10.3.2) to detect clusters of TB cases among the older adult population. Statistical significance was set at P<.05.

RESULTS

The average annual incidence of TB among older adults in Chongqing was 69.59 per 100,000 population, with peaks occurring in spring and summer. The global Moran I ranged from 0.618 to 0.756 (P<.001 in all cases), indicating significant clustering. Persistent high-risk areas were identified in the northeastern and southeastern parts of Chongqing. Spatiotemporal scan statistics detected 1 most likely cluster (relative risk=3.52, 95% CI 3.37-3.68; log-likelihood ratio=1017.43; P<.001) and 3 secondary clusters.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant seasonal patterns of TB among older adults were observed in Chongqing. High-risk areas were predominantly concentrated in the northeastern and southeastern parts of the municipality. More targeted public health interventions are imperative.