Predictors of activity limitation in people with gout: a prospective study.

The objective of the study was to determine clinical factors associated with activity limitation and predictors of a change in activity limitation after 1 year in people with gout. Two hundred ninety-five participants with gout (disease duration < 10 years) attended a baseline assessment which included medical and disease-specific history, pain visual analog score and plain radiographs scored for erosion and narrowing. Activity limitation was assessed using the Health Assessment Questionnaire-II (HAQ-II). After 1 year, participants were invited to complete a further HAQ-II; follow-up questionnaires were available for 182 participants. Fully saturated and stepwise regression analyses were used to determine associations between baseline characteristics and HAQ-II at baseline and 1 year, and to determine predictors of worsening HAQ-II in those with normal baseline scores. Median (range) baseline HAQ-II was 0.20 (0-2.50) and 0.20 (0-2.80) after 1 year of follow-up. Pain score was the strongest independent predictor of baseline HAQ-II, followed by radiographic narrowing score, type 2 diabetes, swollen joint count, BMI, age and urate (model R2 = 0.51, P < 0.001). Baseline HAQ-II was the strongest predictor of change in HAQ-II at 1 year, followed by tender joint count (model R2 = 0.19, P < 0.001). Of those with HAQ-II scores of 0 at baseline (n = 59, 32% of those with follow-up data), most did not progress (n = 52, 88%); however, baseline pain score, type 2 diabetes and flare frequency were significant predictors of worsening HAQ-II in this group (R2 = 0.34, P < 0.001). People with gout experience a wide range of activity limitation, and levels of activity limitation are, on average, stable over a 1-year period. Baseline pain scores are strongly associated with activity limitation and predict development of activity limitation in those with normal HAQ-II scores at baseline.