Recrudescence of tuberculosis in the state of São Paulo post-COVID-19: trends and clusters.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the recrudescence of tuberculosis in the state of São Paulo after the COVID-19 pandemic, identifying temporal trends and spatial clusters of the disease.

METHODS

An ecological study of tuberculosis cases reported on TBWeb in all São Paulo municipalities between January 2015 and December 2023. Time decomposition techniques, interrupted time series analysis by month and spatial analysis by municipality (global Moran index and Getis-Ord Gi*) were applied to identify trends, abrupt changes associated with the pandemic and clusters of high incidence, mortality, and treatment outcomes. The pre-pandemic (01/2015 to 01/2020), pandemic (02/2020 to 04/2022), and post-pandemic (05/2022 to 12/2023) periods were analyzed separately.

RESULTS

There was an upsurge in tuberculosis in the post-pandemic period, with a 21.2% increase in the number of municipalities with an incidence > 110 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. There was a progressive increase in the mortality trend of 0.0026 (95%CI: 0.0016 to 0.0035) deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per month after the pandemic. There was a gradual drop of 0.67% (95%CI: -1.099 to -0.246) per month in the proportion of people cured after the pandemic. High incidence clusters persisted in the Presidente Prudente region in all periods, and new clusters in Marília and Registro after the pandemic. Areas with high mortality rates persisted in the regions of Taubaté, Baixada Santista, Grande São Paulo, Registro, Sorocaba and Campinas in all periods.

CONCLUSION

The recrudescence of tuberculosis in São Paulo in the post-pandemic context highlights the need for targeted strategies for early diagnosis, strengthening treatment and intensive monitoring in regions identified as clusters, especially those with vulnerable populations and structural challenges in health services.