Declining Investigations and Shifting Profiles: A 20-Year Analysis of Child Sexual Abuse Cases in Canadian Child Welfare.

This study examines 20-year trends in child sexual abuse (CSA) investigations within Canada's child welfare system, using data from the Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Abuse and Neglect (CIS) between 1998 and 2019. Data in the current study represent all Canadian provinces/territories except for Quebec. Findings indicate a substantial decline in both investigated and substantiated CSA cases, particularly among children aged 0-7 and cases involving non-parental perpetrators. Substantiated investigations among the youngest children fell by more than 80%, highlighting a marked shift in the age profile of cases coming to the attention of authorities. The overall reduction in CSA investigations may reflect genuine decreases in abuse for certain subgroups, but may also signal changing thresholds for reporting, professional hesitancy, and structural constraints within child welfare and law enforcement agencies. Notably, fewer substantiated cases in 2019 involved police intervention or ongoing services compared with 1998, raising concerns about unmet needs, diminished access to justice, and potential erosion of public confidence.