Monitoring of alendronate treatment and prediction of effect on bone mass by biochemical markers in the early postmenopausal intervention cohort study.

To establish whether biochemical markers could be used to monitor alendronate (ALN) treatment and predict long-term response in bone mass, we used results from an ongoing, randomized trial of ALN treatment for prevention of postmenopausal osteoporosis (n = 1202). In women treated with ALN (5 mg), change from baseline at month 6 in urine N-telopeptide cross-links of type I collagen (NTX) and osteocalcin (OC) correlated with change from baseline at month 24 in spine, hip, and total body bone mineral density (BMD) [r = -0.28 to -0.31 (NTX) and r = -0.16 to -0.25 (OC), P<0.001]. This corresponded to a 4- to 5-fold greater increase at month 24 in BMD in the tertiles, with the greatest decrease at month 6 in NTX or OC. In women treated with ALN (5 mg) who had a change at month 24 in spine BMD of at least 0%, 86% (NTX) and 79% (OC) had a decrease at month 6 of at least 40% (NTX) or 20% (OC) (sensitivity). The corresponding specificities were 48% (NTX) and 53% (OC). In conclusion, change at month 6 in NTX and OC, in groups of women treated with ALN, indicated the numeric long-term response in BMD within these groups. In individual women, a decrease at month 6, in NTX or OC below the cut-point, validly identified women who responded, on ALN treatment, with a stabilization or an increase in bone mass. However, lack of decrease below the cut-point in NTX or OC could not be used to identify women with a bone loss during ALN treatment.