Change of erythrocyte sedimentation rate as prognostic biomarker for Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease through anti-mycobacterial treatment.

BACKGROUND

It remains unclear whether erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) accurately predicts prognosis during treatment and how ESR changes.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the predictive values of ESR as a prognostic factor of Mycobacterium avium complex pulmonary disease (MAC-PD) while on anti-mycobacterial treatment and its changes according to the treatment responses.

DESIGN

This study is a retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

This study included patients aged 18 years or older who initiated anti-mycobacterial treatment for MAC-PD at Seoul National University Hospital between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2022. ESR should be measured at least twice, with a minimum interval of 3 months, during the initial 12 months from the commencement of antibiotic treatment. A mixed linear regression and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to analyze repeated ESR data and the association with patient survival.

RESULTS

Of a total of 825 patients who initiated antibiotic treatment for MAC-PD, 369 patients were included in the analysis. Increased levels of ESR during the treatment process were associated with a higher risk of mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.03) after adjusting age, sex, comorbidities, presence of cavity, acid-fast bacilli smear positivity, and culture conversion at 12 months. During the treatment, ESR at 12 months of treatment significantly decreased compared to baseline ESR in both the culture-converted and not-converted groups, which was categorized based on whether the culture conversion was achieved within the 12 months after treatment initiation.

CONCLUSION

ESR predicted mortality during treatment and decreased over time, regardless of treatment outcomes. Our results underscore the importance of administering anti-mycobacterial treatment even in patients who did not achieve a microbiological cure.