Does back pain predict subsequent fracture in postmenopausal women?

This longitudinal study was undertaken to determine if back pain of postmenopausal women can well predict fragility fracture during 7-year follow-up. In 1983-84, 434 Caucasian women aged 55-80 years were examined at baseline. The incidence of fractures that occurred in the following 7 years and changes of radial bone mineral density (BMD) over 5 years were obtained. There was no significant association between baseline back pain and 7-year fracture incidence after baseline assessment (OR=1.137, [95%CI 0.674, 1.916]). However, the odds ratio in the association between 7-year fracture incidence and a prior history of back pain was 1.686, [95%CI 0.925, 3.073]. This association was statistically significant (OR=2.126, [95%CI 1.409, 2.844]) when age, baseline BMD, constitution, physical activity levels, and baseline back pain were taken into account. Although pain is subject to information bias in its reporting, it is suggested that a history of previous back pain could be a good predictor for postmenopausal fracture.