[A wavelet analysis on the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its relationship with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors].

OBJECTIVE

To explore the onset cycle of scarlet fever in Beijing and its association with theory of five evolutive phases and six climatic factors (FEPSCF).

METHODS

Based on the monthly scarlet fever data from 1970 to 2004, Complex Morlet wavelet was adopted to analyze the annual incidence and the incidence of six climatic factors in the past 35 years. Its association with the cycles of FEP-SCF was explored. The features of heavenly stems and earthly branches in the year that the wave peak corresponded and their correlations with doctrine of FEPSCF were analyzed.

RESULTS

The annual incidence of scarlet fever and the incidence of FEPSCF had two main cycles, i.e., 5 years and 28 years. The 5-year primary cycle was consistent with 5-year cycle of FEPSCF theory. The high incidence year of 5-year primary cycle was Jinyun.

CONCLUSIONS

The cycle of five evolutive phases was consistent with the onset cycle of scarlet fever. The quasi-periodic phenomenon and multi-cycle superimposed phenomenon of FEPSCF theory existed in the incidence of scarlet fever.