BMC public health · 2026
Spatiotemporal epidemiology of hepatitis B in Central China: urbanization drivers and implications for adult-targeted control strategies.
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Mo Yanquan, Li Shanhui, Zhao Ziqian, Jia Huiqun, Zhao Jingya, Liu Feng, Dang Caixia, Guo Liyang, Xu Yuanyong, Tong Yeqing, Chen Hui
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a significant global public health challenge. Hubei Province, a historically high-prevalence area in central China, continues to face persistently high rates of adult HBsAg carriers despite effective reduction of childhood transmission through universal vaccination, hindering progress toward HBV elimination goals. This study aims to identify key drivers behind the rising hepatitis B incidence in the region, forecast future trends, and inform targeted control strategies.
METHODS: This population-based spatiotemporal epidemiological study analyzed hepatitis B surveillance data from Hubei Province between January 2015 and December 2024, covering 631,361 reported cases across 17 prefecture-level divisions. Spatial clustering was assessed using Global Moran's I statistics. Urbanization-related spatial drivers were identified via geographically weighted random forest modeling with SHAP value interpretation, and future incidence trends were predicted using Holt-Winters time series forecasting.
RESULTS: The average annual incidence was 106.19 per 100,000 population, showing a U-shaped temporal trend: declining from 111.75 per 100,000 in 2015 to 83.58 in 2020, then rising to 125.86 in 2024. Adults aged 30-50 years consistently accounted for 40-50% of total cases. Significant spatial clustering was detected (Global Moran's I: 0.124-0.307, P < 0.05), with persistent high-risk zones concentrated in the Wuhan metropolitan area. The geographically weighted random forest model identified urbanization rate as the primary spatial driver (SHAP value ≈2.0), followed by higher education enrollment rate (≈1.0) and passenger traffic volume (≈0.8). Time series forecasting projected monthly incidence rates of 8.98-10.41 per 100,000 over the subsequent 18 months (R2 = 0.892, MAPE = 1.74%).
CONCLUSION: In Hubei Province, the hepatitis B burden has concentrated in adults born before the vaccine era, underscoring horizontal transmission risks in this susceptible cohort. Urbanization significantly impacts the spatial distribution of hepatitis B, with high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the Wuhan metropolitan region. It is crucial to address urbanization-related factors affecting HBV transmission and to implement targeted screening and revaccination for adults aged 30-50, particularly among high-risk individuals, mobile populations, and rural residents, to reduce incidence and alleviate the regional disease burden.
METHODS: This population-based spatiotemporal epidemiological study analyzed hepatitis B surveillance data from Hubei Province between January 2015 and December 2024, covering 631,361 reported cases across 17 prefecture-level divisions. Spatial clustering was assessed using Global Moran's I statistics. Urbanization-related spatial drivers were identified via geographically weighted random forest modeling with SHAP value interpretation, and future incidence trends were predicted using Holt-Winters time series forecasting.
RESULTS: The average annual incidence was 106.19 per 100,000 population, showing a U-shaped temporal trend: declining from 111.75 per 100,000 in 2015 to 83.58 in 2020, then rising to 125.86 in 2024. Adults aged 30-50 years consistently accounted for 40-50% of total cases. Significant spatial clustering was detected (Global Moran's I: 0.124-0.307, P < 0.05), with persistent high-risk zones concentrated in the Wuhan metropolitan area. The geographically weighted random forest model identified urbanization rate as the primary spatial driver (SHAP value ≈2.0), followed by higher education enrollment rate (≈1.0) and passenger traffic volume (≈0.8). Time series forecasting projected monthly incidence rates of 8.98-10.41 per 100,000 over the subsequent 18 months (R2 = 0.892, MAPE = 1.74%).
CONCLUSION: In Hubei Province, the hepatitis B burden has concentrated in adults born before the vaccine era, underscoring horizontal transmission risks in this susceptible cohort. Urbanization significantly impacts the spatial distribution of hepatitis B, with high-risk areas mainly concentrated in the Wuhan metropolitan region. It is crucial to address urbanization-related factors affecting HBV transmission and to implement targeted screening and revaccination for adults aged 30-50, particularly among high-risk individuals, mobile populations, and rural residents, to reduce incidence and alleviate the regional disease burden.