Global, regional, and national lifetime probabilities of urinary tract infections and interstitial nephritis from 1990 to 2021.

Urinary tract infections (UTI) and interstitial nephritis (IN) are significant global health concerns, leaving a heavy burden to the healthcare system. UTI is one of the most common infections worldwide and IN is characterized by acute and chronic renal damage. This study aims to quantify the lifetime risk of developing and dying from UTI and IN across 204 countries from 1990 to 2021, utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021. We employed advanced statistical models, including the adjusted for multiple primaries method, Joinpoint trend analysis, and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models, to assess temporal trends and forecast future risks. Results revealed a global lifetime risk of developing UTI and IN at 93.70% in 2021, with higher risks in females (96.05%) compared to males (77.27%). The global lifetime risk of dying from UTI and IN at 0.50%. High Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions exhibited higher developing risks, while low-SDI regions showed significant upward trends. Gender disparities were evident, with females consistently experiencing higher risks. The ARIMA model projected a persistent upward trend in UTI and IN risks over the next 3 decades, emphasizing the need for targeted public health interventions. These findings highlight the importance of addressing UTI and IN through improved healthcare infrastructure, early screening, and preventive measures, particularly in high-risk populations and regions.