The role of climatic factors and air quality on the temporal patterns of suicide attempts in Balıkesir, Turkey (2017-2024).

INTRODUCTION AND

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this ecological study is to evaluate the potential relationships between the incidence of suicide attempts and climatic factors, as well as air quality parameters, in Balikesir, Turkey.

MATERIAL AND

METHODS

Daily counts of cases of attempted suicide, climate, and air quality data were used. Prior to analysis, logarithmic transformation was applied to the data in order to stabilize variance. Data analysis was performed in EViews 10 using descriptive statistics (annual, monthly, weekly patterns) and ARMA error regression (ARIMAX). Stationarity was assessed with the ADF test, while the basic model structure was determined using ACF/PACF plots.

RESULTS

A total of 1,413 cases of attempted suicide, with a mean age of 26.9±14.2 years and 64.0% females, were included. Case distributions revealed a bimodal seasonal pattern (spring/early summer and winter) and a weekly rhythm with a marked decrease on Thursdays. Time series analyses indicated a strong association between the incidence of suicide attempts and its own short-term past values, with the ARMA(1,1) model providing the best fit. None of the lagged climatic, air quality, or seasonal dummy variables added to the model had a statistically significant effect on daily incidence (p>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study suggest that the predominant factor shaping the daily course of the incidence of suicide attempt in Balıkesir is the short-term autocorrelation structure of the series itself. The temporal dynamics and the potential effects of environmental factors may be more likely to operate through indirect mechanisms or cumulative influences, rather than immediate fluctuations.