A nomogram for predicting ischaemic muscle sequelae after revascularization in patients with traumatic femoral-popliteal artery injuries: a retrospective cohort study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to investigate the incidence and associated risk factors of ischaemic muscle sequelae in patients with traumatic femoropopliteal artery injuries following revascularization, as well as to develop a nomogram to predict the risk of ischaemic muscle sequelae.

METHODS

Data from patients with acute traumatic femoropopliteal artery injuries between January 2008 and December 2022 were collected. All patients with successful limb salvage were divided into two groups based on the occurrence of ischaemic muscle sequelae: the ischemic muscle sequelae group (IG) and the non-ischaemic muscle sequelae group (NG). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify potential predictive factors associated with ischaemic muscle sequelae. A predictive nomogram was constructed and internally validated.

RESULTS

Among the 102 patients, 30 cases (29.41%) developed ischaemic muscle sequelae. Independent predictors of ischaemic muscle sequelae were identified as crush injury, HCT, and CKMB. A nomogram was constructed based on these three parameters. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the predictive model was 0.894, indicating excellent discrimination. The calibration curve demonstrated a high degree of consistency between the predicted probabilities and the observed outcomes. Additionally, the decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram model had good predictive capability.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that crush injury, HCT, and CKMB were independent predictors of ischaemic muscle sequelae in patients with acute traumatic femoropopliteal artery injuries following revascularization. The nomogram integrating clinical factors and blood markers can assist physicians in conveniently predicting the risk of ischaemic muscle sequelae in patients.