Predicting Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Cardiac Surgery Using Combined Clinical, Laboratory, and Echocardiographic Parameters: A Machine Learning Approach.

Background and

Objectives

Despite significant advances in surgical techniques and perioperative care, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) remain a leading cause of postoperative morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or aortic valve replacement. Accurate preoperative risk stratification is essential yet often limited by models that overlook atrial mechanics and underutilized biomarkers. Materials and

Methods

This study aimed to develop an interpretable machine learning model for predicting perioperative MACE by integrating clinical, biochemical, and echocardiographic features, with a particular focus on novel physiological markers. A retrospective cohort of 131 patients was analyzed. An Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) classifier was trained on a comprehensive feature set, and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAPs) were used to quantify each variable's contribution to model predictions.

Results

In a stratified 80:20 train-test split, the model initially achieved an AUC of 1.00. Acknowledging the potential for overfitting in small datasets, additional validation was performed using 10 independent random splits and 5-fold cross-validation. These analyses yielded an average AUC of 0.846 ± 0.092 and an F1-score of 0.807 ± 0.096, supporting the model's stability and generalizability. The most influential predictors included total atrial conduction time, mitral and tricuspid annular orifice areas, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. These variables, spanning electrophysiological, structural, and metabolic domains, significantly enhanced discriminative performance, even in patients with preserved left ventricular function. The model's transparency provides clinically intuitive insights into individual risk profiles, emphasizing the significance of non-traditional parameters in perioperative assessments.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the feasibility and potential clinical value of combining advanced echocardiographic, biochemical, and machine learning tools for individualized cardiovascular risk prediction. While promising, these findings require prospective validation in larger, multicenter cohorts before being integrated into routine clinical decision-making.