Predicting Stroke Complications in Hospital and Functional Status at Discharge by Clustering of Cardiovascular Diseases a Multi-Centre Registry-Based Study of Acute Stroke.

OBJECTIVE

Indicators for outcomes following acute stroke are lacking. We have developed novel evidence-based criteria for identifying outcomes of acute stroke using the presence of clusters of coexisting cardiovascular disease (CVD).

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

Analysis of prospectively collected data from the Sentinel Stroke National Audit Programme (SSNAP). A total of 1656 men (mean age ±SD=73.1yrs±13.2) and 1653 women (79.3yrs±13.0) were admitted with acute stroke (83.3% ischaemic, 15.7% intracranial haemorrhagic), 1.0% unspecified) in four major UK hyperacute stroke units (HASU) between 2014 and 2016. Four categories from cardiovascular disease Congestive heart failure, Atrial fibrillation, pre-existing Stroke and Hypertension (CASH).were constructed: CASH-0 (no coexisting CVD); CASH-1 (any one coexisting CVD); CASH-2 (any two coexisting CVD); CASH-3 (any three or all four coexisting CVD). These were tested against outcomes, adjusted for age and sex.

RESULTS

Compared to CASH-0, individuals with CASH-3 had greatest risks of in-hospital mortality (11.1% vs 24.5%, OR=1.8, 95%CI=1.3-2.7) and disability (modified Rankin Scale score ≥4) at discharge (24.2% vs 46.2%, OR=1.9, 95%CI=1.4-2.7), urinary tract infection (3.8% vs 14.6%, OR= 3.3, 95%CI= 1.9-5.5), and pneumonia (7.1% vs 20.6%, OR= 2.6, 95%CI= 1.7-4.0); length of stay on HASU >14 days (29.8% vs 39.3%, OR=1.8, 95%CI=1.3-2.6); and joint-care planning (20.9% vs 29.8%, OR=1.4, 95%CI=1.0-2.0).

CONCLUSIONS

We present a simple tool for estimating the risk of adverse outcomes of acute stroke including death, disability at discharge, nosocomial infections, prolonged length of stay, as well as any joint care planning. CASH-0 indicates a low level and CASH-3 indicates a high level of risk of such complications after stroke.