Spatial Analysis of Notified Zika Virus Congenital Syndrome, Maranhão, 2015 to 2018.

OBJECTIVE

To identify spatial patterns in cases of changes in growth and development related to Zika virus infection and other infectious etiologies (denominated Zika virus congenital syndrome in this study) reported in Maranhão from 2015 to 2018 and their relation with socioeconomic and demographic variables.

METHODS

Ecological study of notified Zika virus congenital syndrome cases in the 217 cities of Maranhão, Brasil. Spatial autocorrelation was calculated using GeoDa 1.14 software and the local and global (I) Moran's index in univariate and bivariate analyses on Zika virus congenital syndrome incidence rate with Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), population density, Gini coefficient and the cities' time of administrative political emancipation. Local Moran's Index was calculated to identify clusters with significant spatial autocorrelation.

RESULTS

Spatial autocorrelation was checked in univariate analysis of the incidence rate of Zika virus congenital syndrome (I=0,494; p=0,001) and positive correlation in bivariate analysis of the incidence rate with Municipal Human Development Index (I=0,252; p=0,001), population density (I=0,338; p=0,001) and the cities' time of administrative political emancipation (I=0,134; p=0,001). The correlation between incidence rate with Gini coefficient was not significant (I= -0,033; p=0,131). Five high-incidence clusters were found in distinct areas of the state.

CONCLUSIONS

Cities with higher MHDI, higher population density and more years of administrative political emancipation had more cases of Zika virus congenital syndrome notified.