Development of a machine learning-based sepsis prediction model for real-world clinical settings in South Korea: a single-center retrospective study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for the early identification of patients at risk of sepsis, using routinely available clinical information and laboratory test results collected during the initial phase of patient care.

METHODS

This retrospective analysis included electronic medical records of 22,400 adult patients who presented with suspected infection to a tertiary care university hospital in Korea between January 2013 and May 2024. Patients were classified according to Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (score ≥ 2) or Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (score ≥ 2), in combination with sepsis-related International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision codes. Four different machine learning models were trained and validated using five-fold cross-validation. In addition, Shapley additive explanations analysis was performed to interpret the contribution and clinical relevance of key predictive variables.

RESULTS

Among the evaluated models, CatBoost demonstrated the strongest predictive performance. Notably, platelet distribution width, alveolar-arterial oxygen difference, procalcitonin, and the arterial/alveolar oxygen ratio consistently emerged as major predictors. Importantly, several variables that did not reach statistical significance in univariate analysis nevertheless contributed substantially to overall model performance, highlighting the importance of complex, multidimensional interactions among clinical factors.

CONCLUSION

These findings indicate that a model based on simple, routinely collected clinical data can achieve high predictive accuracy and strong generalizability. Such a tool may support early clinical decision-making by multidisciplinary teams, including nurses, across diverse real-world care settings. Further prospective studies are warranted to validate its clinical utility and to assess its potential effects on patient outcomes.