Drowning and Submersion Deaths in Bathtubs and Associated Factors: A Descriptive and Ecological Study in Japan, 1995-2020.

BACKGROUND

Older Japanese adults have the highest drowning mortality rates globally, likely due to in-home bathing customs. However, epidemiological evidence of preventive strategies based on national data is lacking. We aimed to describe the trends in bathtub drowning deaths (International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code: W65) across Japan and explore factors that may reduce W65-coded deaths.

METHODS

We collected the data of all W65-coded deaths that occurred at home from 1995 to 2020 using death certificates from the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The national age-adjusted mortality rates (AMRs) and prefecture-specific age-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated. Data on demographic, socioeconomic, environmental factors, and nursing care services were obtained from the Japan Portal Site of Official Statistics. Mixed-effects analysis was used to examine the association between SMR and potential contributing factors at the prefecture level.

RESULTS

We identified 99,930 W65-coded deaths at home, with the highest incidence among individuals aged 80-84 years, peaking in January. Since 2010, AMRs have consistently exceeded 3.0 per 100,000. An inverse association was found between SMR and the number of geriatric health service facilities and senior welfare centers per capita (coefficients per 1 standard deviation increase, -0.09; 95% confidence interval (CI), -0.13 to -0.05, P < 0.001 and -0.07; 95% CI, -0.11 to -0.02, P = 0.004, respectively), after adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental factors.

CONCLUSION

Sustained high AMRs suggest that the rising death toll was not solely due to aging. Increased access to nursing care facilities may help prevent W65-coded deaths.