Global burden of gastroesophageal reflux disease in women of perimenopausal age: trends and forecasts.

OBJECTIVE

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is a highly prevalent disorder that diminishes quality of life. Hormonal fluctuations during the perimenopausal transition (age 45-54 years) may heighten susceptibility to GERD, yet the magnitude of the burden in this group remains poorly characterized. This study aims to quantify GERD trends in women of perimenopausal age and forecast disease trajectories to 2045.

METHOD: Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were utilized. Age-standardized rates were calculated, annual percentage changes were estimated (EAPC) and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were employed to project trends to 2045.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) of GERD in women of perimenopausal age exhibited a decreasing trend (EAPC for both: -0.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] - 0.14 to -0.04), despite a marked rise in the prevalent cases. Latin America recorded the highest ASDR. Middle Socio-demographic Index regions experienced the greatest growth in prevalent cases. The BAPC model predicts a rise in the age-standardized incidence rate.

CONCLUSION

The burden of GERD in women of perimenopausal age exhibits significant global heterogeneity. Incidence rates have risen persistently and are projected to increase through 2045.